MoneyAccumulator.com

Below are the signs that the United States Economy is meeting some headwinds.

RIM has fallen behind big time and they got to innovate fast as they have been leap frogged by Apple and Google. I’m Canadian and sure I want a Canadian technology company to succeed, but that doesn’t mean RIM will because I think they got too comfortable…RIM reminds me of Nortel and it might end up like Nortel if RIM doesn’t swallow its pride. Nortel got so big and popular and they rested on their laurels instead of looking to the future and innovating.

Well, the month of September had a nice run…the DOW, SP&500 and Nasdaq bounced back up. However, whenever there is a significant run up there has to be a pull back.

As far as the economy is concerned there is nothing in my view supporting the recent run up in the markets. From the macro view the U.S is still in huge deficit, government spending continues and jobs are still being lost despite corporations making record profit. Now add to that the recent report that over 40 million Americans are now considered poor, while the middle-class is being wiped out.

In previous post on MoneyAccumulator.com I wrote about the CALL options I bought on SLV (Silver ETF) for expiry of January 2010 with a strike price of $19. Well, I recently sold the options contract when the SLV ETF reached the price of $20.60.

About 3 months ago, I bought contracts in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF kind of as an experiment or litmus test to see my hunches are correct.

If the stock market and economy falters in the next 3 months by January 2010 SLV contracts with a strike price of $19 will make some money as long as the contract price exceeds my break even of $2.10. Currently the contract price is at $2.23 (Sept.16, 2010).

I posted on Tuesday, August 17th that the Dow Jones will drop to 10,000 points from 10,450 points then bounce a bit, and again head lower to the next support level 9,600.  As you can see from trading the actions of August 26 and 27 that it is exactly how it is playing out.

Looking at the 6 month chart for the DJIA, it looks like the market is at the beginning of a downtrend, the 10 and 200 day moving average is well over the price adding to downward pressure, however it looks like their might be a small pop upwards as the price hits the 50-day moving average, but after that my guess is that the downward trend will continue bringing the Dow Jones down to 10,000 and if it breaks past that down to 9,600 again.  Also looking at the MACD it looks like a downward indicator as well ( please read my disclaimer).  I have been wrong before so do your own due deligence, this is just my read on the market.

I recently bought some contracts in iShares Silver ETF (SLV) for Jan 2011 @ $19. Why am I now looking into silver, my reasoning behind it is that the stock market at this point may have topped and for the rest of the summer most likely will go down ( as mentioned in last article). In light of this, GOLD and SILVER have an inverse relationship to the stock market, so my speculation is that within the next six months when the stock market goes down the price of silver will be rising. The iShares Silver ETF is currently trading at $18.43, and I am speculating that it will be above $19 by years end.

Recently I have re-installed Metastock 10 stock charting program on one of my computers running Ubuntu linux. In case you are thinking “Metastock 10 does not run on Linux”, let me clarify…I am running the stock charting program in a VMWare image of Windows XP. The funny thing is a message comes up when I start Metastock that says something like “This program does not run in virtual machines” however, everything seems to work fine.

Below are a set of links to videos which teaches you the basics of “Trend Trading.”  Given the fact that some economist in the U.S are saying that the recession has bottomed out, it may be a good idea to learn and train yourself to be a better trader when the slow recovery comes around.  Even in this current environment, there is still some money to be made by the volatility.

Here is a video of a British economist, talking about how the rest of the world feel right now about the irresponsibilities of the U.S Government and the U.S financial system.

Click “PLAY” to watch the video…interesting views.

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